A global movement is currently gaining momentum, advocating for a shift towards renewable energy sources and the abandonment of fossil fuels. This push for green energy is driven not only by the need to mitigate the catastrophic effects of climate change but also by economic considerations, including the desire for energy independence. However, this transition is not without its challenges.
The demand for reliable, advanced infrastructure is rising, particularly in renewable energy cables, which play a crucial role in gathering and transmitting this energy.
In recent years, there has been a notable surge in international efforts to establish submarine energy networks that connect continents via vast green energy cables, stretching thousands of miles. These submarine cables have begun to spread across the ocean floors, offering a critical solution to the climate crisis by facilitating the distribution of clean energy. As a result, many nations pursuing green energy transitions are heavily investing in these networks, forging new relationships that may reshape the global geopolitical landscape. Some reports suggest that future energy wars will likely be fought in the depths of the oceans and seas.
The Nature of Submarine Green Energy Cables
Over the past few years, the global shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy has accelerated. This shift has been further underscored by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which highlighted the urgent need to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that renewable energy capacity will grow by around 2,400 gigawatts by 2027, reflecting the ambitious targets set by various nations.
Amid this global green transition, attention has increasingly focused on submarine cables designed to transport renewable energy. Submarine green energy cables are specialised, long-distance cables designed to transmit electricity beneath the sea. These cables are typically made using copper conductors, encased in layers of lead alloys and polyethylene sheaths, and reinforced with galvanised steel wire armour to protect the delicate internal components.
This design ensures that the cables can withstand the demanding conditions of installation and operation on the ocean floor.
The primary aim of these submarine energy networks is to balance energy systems between countries, enabling the shared use of different energy sources. As renewable energy from wind and solar power continues to grow, the output from these sources remains variable, depending on wind strength and sunlight. Therefore, the ability to exchange and share energy resources between countries has become increasingly important. For example, the UK is looking to leverage Norway’s vast hydroelectric power, while Norway, in turn, can benefit from electricity generated by the UK’s wind farms. Submarine energy cables facilitate the connection of one country’s energy grid to another, a practice commonly known as “interconnectors.” These interconnectors allow national power grids to operate as part of a larger, more diverse system, enabling surplus green energy from one country or region to be used to compensate for shortfalls in others.
The demand for submarine green energy cables has been rising sharply, with the market growing from around $3 billion between 2015 and 2020 to approximately $11 billion in 2022. Projections indicate that this demand could reach $32 billion by 2032.
However, the supply of these cables is relatively constrained, with only a few companies specialising in their production. Companies like Italy’s Prysmian Group, Denmark’s NKT, and France’s Nexans dominate about 75% of the submarine green energy cable market.
Moreover, new companies looking to enter the field, face significant challenges, including the need for specialised technical expertise and advanced equipment capable of manufacturing and deploying these cables deep beneath the sea.
The Growing Reach of Submarine Green Energy Cables
In recent years, the expansion of submarine green energy cables has surged dramatically, with the United Kingdom standing out as a pioneer in developing these networks.
The UK has established multiple submarine cable systems dedicated to transmitting green energy. Alongside the cables connecting the UK to Norway, additional networks link the country with France, the Netherlands, and Belgium.
Moreover, a new submarine cable network connecting Britain to Denmark is currently under construction, with an estimated cost of $2.7 billion.
Furthermore, the UK has signed a green energy agreement with Morocco to harness the long hours of sunlight and strong winds in Rabat.
This agreement aims to transport 3.6 gigawatts of solar and wind energy via 4 submarine cables stretching 3,800 kilometres, potentially supplying about 8% of Britain’s energy needs.
Norway and the UK are also expected to complete one of the longest submarine green energy cables within the next few months, the North Sea Link. This will mark Norway’s seventh green energy network, allowing it to export its abundant hydroelectric power.
Meanwhile, the UK and Germany are collaborating on the NeuConnect project, a £2.4 billion initiative to lay submarine cables between Grain in southeast England and Feddwarden in northwest Germany.
Australia is following a similar path with its ambitious “Sun Cable” project, designed to transmit solar energy from Canberra to Singapore. The project, developed by the Australian firm Sun Cable, is estimated to cost $19 billion and will involve the installation of over 4,000 kilometres of submarine cables.
In another major initiative, plans are underway to construct several green energy networks linking Asia and Europe via the Middle East as part of a broader economic corridor.
One of the key projects aims to connect India and Saudi Arabia through submarine cables passing beneath the Arabian Sea.
The Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) project, which will link Canada and the United States, has also recently started floating renewable energy cables across the border via Lake Champlain.
Launched in 2022, this project is one of the largest green energy transmission initiatives in the US, expected to carry 1,250 megawatts of renewable energy along 545 kilometres of submarine cables from Quebec, Canada, to Queens, New York to meet 20% of New York’s energy needs.
Reports from Western sources have revealed plans by a group of entrepreneurs to build a network of high-voltage submarine cables across the Atlantic Ocean, connecting Europe and North America. Spanning over 3,218 kilometres beneath the Atlantic, these cables will link western Canada to the west of the UK, and western France to New York.
Additionally, these cables are expected to transmit around 6 gigawatts of energy, equivalent to the output of six nuclear power plants, at speeds faster than the speed of light.
In another development, a joint venture called Green Energy Corridor was established through an agreement between Romania’s Transelectrica, Azerbaijan’s Azerenerji, Georgia’s GSE, and Hungary’s MVM. The collaboration aims to construct a 1,196-kilometre submarine cable network beneath the Black Sea, with a capacity of 1 gigawatt, to supply green energy to Europe at an estimated cost of €3.5 billion.
Meanwhile, Greece is promoting its GREGY project, which will transport 3 gigawatts of wind and solar energy from Egypt and other African countries to Greece and various European nations. This $3.7 billion project will involve laying 1,373 kilometres of submarine cables.
Accelerating the Transition to Renewable Energy
The use of submarine cables to transmit renewable energy is proving to be a crucial tool in helping countries phase out fossil fuels. This aligns with the statements of Cordi O’Hara, president of National Grid Ventures, who emphasised that expanding green energy cables will assist nations in achieving their decarbonisation goals.
Through these cables, countries can access green energy from other regions during periods when local solar or wind resources are insufficient.
Sharing renewable energy between countries is essential for moving away from fossil fuels and towards increased reliance on green energy. Europe is currently intensifying its investments in submarine cables to tap into renewable energy, leveraging the strengths of countries rich in green energy resources, such as Norway’s hydroelectric power and the solar and wind energy potential in North African nations.
As technological advancements in renewable energy production continue, the cost of renewable energy is becoming increasingly competitive with non-renewable sources. For example, the cost of installing photovoltaic solar power has dropped from $5.52 per watt in 2010 to approximately $1.13 per watt in 2018, with further reductions expected in the coming years.
However, one of the main challenges in expanding renewable energy remains the potential for power outages, fluctuations in demand, and compatibility problems in regional power grids.
Current energy networks are often not equipped to handle the drastic shifts in energy inputs. To successfully integrate renewable energy into the grid, new regulations, standards, and codes must be developed, particularly to harmonise different voltage, frequency, and quality requirements of new and existing infrastructure.
One key solution discussed in Western literature is the transmission of energy over long distances as electricity, either through high-voltage alternating current (HVAC) or high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cables. HVDC cables, in particular, are preferred for their lower costs and reduced energy loss.
Thus most submarine green energy networks in Europe are now using HVDC cables.
A report from the Climate Action Tracker group highlights that submarine cables are crucial in accelerating the integration of renewable energy into existing power grids.
Some reports also suggest the possibility of repurposing existing natural gas networks to transport renewable energy in the form of hydrogen, using power-to-gas (PtG) technologies. However, these projects are still in their experimental phases.
Will Submarine Power Cables Shift Future Energy Wars to the Depths of the Oceans?
The global energy landscape is currently undergoing significant transformations, particularly with the rapid advancements in renewable energy sources. These shifts are not just about redefining how energy is produced and consumed but will also affect industries connected to energy, including the submarine cable industry.
The current international moves in renewable energy cables hint at potential global competition in this field.
For the past century, geopolitical power in the international system has been closely tied to fossil fuels. Concerns about gas shortages or oil embargoes often led to the restructuring of alliances or even the outbreak of wars.
However, the network of winners and losers in a green energy world is expected to change drastically. As the transition to clean energy unfolds faster than anticipated, the old geostrategic model of dominant power centres is fading, with new actors taking the lead in the emerging energy system.
In the context of this new energy system, the transmission of green energy across countries is becoming one of its defining features. Given that green energy transmission relies heavily on submarine cables, the upcoming international competition in the energy sector seems poised to focus on the depths of oceans and seas.
Western reports have highlighted several key ways for countries to exert influence in the new energy system. Chief among these are exporting green energy, controlling the materials necessary for producing and transmitting this energy—such as lithium and cobalt—and gaining a competitive technological edge, especially in electric vehicle batteries. According to these reports, China is far ahead of other nations in terms of the tools needed to wield influence in the new energy order.
Moreover, China possesses many crucial minerals essential for green energy and its transmission, such as copper, cobalt, silicon, and rare earth elements. Chinese companies control many of the mines for these materials, including the Tenke Fungurume copper and cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which China Molybdenum purchased in 2016 from the American company Freeport-McMoRan for approximately $2.65 billion.
Additionally, China is the world’s largest producer of batteries and produces more than 70% of the world’s photovoltaic solar panels, nearly half of the world’s electric vehicles, and around one-third of global wind energy.
Moreover, China is very active in developing submarine cable networks for green energy, which form the backbone of the clean energy system. China already operates a network of high-voltage submarine cables that stretch across continents to achieve global green energy connectivity.
On the other hand, the United States is working to catch up in this intense competition with China. The US State Department has set out a plan to improve access to rare earth minerals, which are critical to clean energy.
Additionally, the US and the European Union are imposing tariffs on Chinese photovoltaic panels as part of the ongoing trade war, expressing growing concern over China’s advances in clean energy and its transmission tools, particularly submarine cables.
Some Western estimates have suggested that the North Atlantic Transmission One-Link (NATO-L) project, a transatlantic submarine cable between Europe and North America, is intended to form strategic alliances among Western powers to counter Russia and China in the ongoing global energy wars.
This project aims to shift these energy conflicts to the depths of the oceans, with submarine cables becoming a new battlefield. In response to increasing Western pressure, Russia has been escalating its grey zone attacks in the North Atlantic and the North Sea, posing a threat to submarine cables and exacerbating the submarine energy wars.
While the competition between China on one side and the US and the West on the other regarding submarine cables is about each side’s pursuit of dominance in this emerging and vital field in future energy wars, Russia’s competition in this area is quite different.
Moscow has long enjoyed significant strategic advantages due to its vast reserves of gas, oil, and coal. The global trend towards expanding reliance on green energy and the shift of various countries, including oil producers, towards investing in renewables, poses a threat to these strategic advantages. Hence, Russia views these submarine cables with suspicion. Therefore, future energy wars seem to be shifting towards the depths of oceans and seas. Instead of the traditional energy wars that focused on oil and gas fields and their transportation, the upcoming energy conflicts are likely to revolve around submarine cables, which offer innovative mechanisms for transmitting green energy between countries and across continents.
These cables could enhance international cooperation in energy and accelerate the abandonment of fossil fuels in favour of green energy. However, they could also become a new arena for intense international competition, potentially leading to violent conflicts.
In conclusion, green energy submarine cables have become a vital tool for development and the global shift away from fossil fuels. They facilitate energy markets by allowing countries with high electricity costs to buy cheaper energy from other nations, similar to the interconnector between Norway and the UK.
Moreover, these cables provide a key solution to the issue of the intermittent nature of renewable energy, which relies heavily on sunlight and wind. Since energy storage technologies are not yet perfected, there is a need to transfer excess energy to areas with higher demand and prepare for reverse energy transmission when production declines in one region while it increases in another. ●
» By: Adnan Mousa (Assistant Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Political Science – Cairo University)
