The desire to return to the moon has persisted since humans last set foot on it in 1972. However, for decades, these efforts faced significant political obstacles. Recently, this ambition has re-emerged as a critical element of the geopolitical competition in today’s international system, particularly between the United States and China. The 1960s saw a fierce rivalry between the Soviet Union and the US to achieve the first human landing on the Moon, culminating in the Apollo 11 mission in July 1969, which showcased America’s technological prowess and affirmed the superiority of its political and economic systems.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia joined the US in efforts to explore space, most notably with the operation of the International Space Station (ISS). This cooperation gave the impression that the space race had ended. However, in recent years, a new race has emerged—this time towards the Moon—driven by the potential commercial exploitation of lunar resources and increasing military competition in space. This competition mirrors the Cold War, now reignited between Washington and Beijing.
Amid this surge in lunar activity, several Western reports have highlighted growing American concerns over China’s rapid advancements in space exploration. Beijing is actively working towards establishing its International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) by 2025, in parallel with the US-led Artemis programme, which aims to solidify American dominance in lunar space.
As such, this competition could potentially shape global geopolitical conflicts in the coming years, with some experts even coining the term “Lunar Cold War.”
The Aspects of the Lunar Competition
In recent years, a significant push towards the Moon has become evident, with over 70 countries now possessing space programmes. There is renewed interest in returning to the Moon for the first time since the Apollo missions of the mid-20th century.
Unlike the first space age, which began in 1961 with the Soviet Union’s Yuri Gagarin orbiting the Earth and culminating in the US landing the first human on the Moon, the second space age, following the Cold War, was marked by extensive cooperation. This era saw the construction of the ISS and the continuous presence of international astronauts in space, beginning in 2000.
However, a key characteristic of this second space age was the noticeable decline in efforts to send humans on missions beyond Earth’s orbit. Now, the emerging third space age seems poised to reverse this trend, with a sharp increase in human space missions, especially to the Moon.
China has been particularly active in recent lunar missions, surpassing the number of American missions in recent years. This has raised alarms in the US, especially regarding China’s potential “first-mover” advantage in critical lunar areas such as the lunar poles, which hold vast reserves of water ice. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson expressed concerns that Chinese astronauts may reach the Moon’s south pole before their American counterparts, potentially establishing exclusive zones in this strategically significant region.
These concerns were exacerbated when, in June 2024, China became the first country to return samples from the Moon’s far side. Its unmanned Chang’e 6 lander successfully touched down at the lunar south pole to collect soil and rock samples, marking China’s second successful landing in this region since 2019. The far side of the Moon had never been explored by either the US or the Soviet Union, making China’s achievement in 2019, with the Chang’e-4 mission, the first successful exploration of this difficult-to-reach terrain.
Meanwhile, Western media have drawn attention to the repeated failures of US lunar initiatives, such as the crash of the American company Astrobotic’s “Peregrine” lander. NASA also announced delays in its Artemis missions, pushing two key lunar missions back by a year due to budgetary issues. The US Congress’s insufficient funding has hindered the Trump administration’s pledge to return American astronauts to the Moon by 2024.
Unlike the original lunar race, where the US conducted its Apollo missions without relying on its allies, the new race against China features a different approach. The Artemis Accords, which currently include 42 countries, aim to form an international coalition supporting lunar cooperation and maintaining American leadership in space. Alongside the European Union, Canada, and Japan, the US is developing the Lunar Gateway, a space station that will orbit the Moon. The first modules are expected to launch by 2025. Additionally, Washington has expanded partnerships with the private sector through the Artemis programme.
China, on the other hand, adopts a state-controlled Cold War model for its lunar programme, ensuring government oversight of its space projects, technology, and data. While this approach could enhance China’s chances of success, it also depends on sustained economic growth and government investment, both of which could falter if economic conditions decline.
Nevertheless, China has recently shifted its space policy to focus on international cooperation, launching its “Chinese Lunar Exploration Programme” (CLEP). In 2019, the China National Space Administration (CNSA) proposed the ILRS, marking the country’s first major multilateral lunar collaboration initiative. In March 2021, China signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia for joint lunar exploration missions.
Other nations are also competing in the lunar space race. India, for example, successfully landed its Chandrayaan-3 mission on the Moon in August 2023, making it the fourth country to do so, following the US, China, and the Soviet Union. This marked India’s rise as a significant space power. Other players, such as Japan and Russia, are still struggling to achieve lunar landings.
Both Japan’s “Moon Sniper” mission and Russia’s Luna-25 mission failed to land on the Moon in 2023, but more international lunar missions are expected in the coming years.
Geostrategic Importance of the Lunar Domain
Landing on the Moon is an extremely challenging task, which explains the delay of more than five decades since the Apollo missions. Since the mid-20th century, only 12 astronauts, all Americans, have set foot on the Moon through the Apollo missions between 1969 and 1972. However, this number is expected to increase in the coming years with the growing number of missions aimed at orbiting or landing on the Moon.
There is a broad international interest in lunar missions and the extraction of lunar resources, as demonstrated by efforts from the US, Russia, India, Japan, South Korea, and various private companies. However, China remains the only nation with a long-term vision for expanding its lunar activities and harnessing the Moon’s vast resources. Additionally, it is the only country that has invested heavily in future space technologies in recent years, such as space-based solar power, which could help power the lunar base China plans to establish near the Moon’s south pole.
Meanwhile, in February 2024, the American company “Intuitive Machines” achieved success with the landing of its unmanned spacecraft “Nova-C,” also called Odysseus, near the Malapert A crater close to the Moon’s south pole. This landing marks a historic event for the US, being its first lunar landing in over 50 years, even though it was an unmanned mission. This could pave the way for a new generation of American astronauts to return to the Moon.
While the 20th-century space race was heavily influenced by political conflicts, the current century’s race will centre on economic competition. Many startups and aviation companies worldwide are getting involved in lunar missions and developing commercial lunar landers. Some literature has even coined the term “Moon Economy” to describe the financial gains companies are making through their lunar-related activities.
Some observers believe that the current “lunar war” could have a decisive impact on the future competition between China and the US for dominance in the international system. Just as the Apollo program in the mid-20th century, which resulted in humans landing on the Moon, was a pivotal moment that solidified American technological superiority over the Soviet Union, the new lunar cold war could be crucial in shaping the emerging global order.
Rising International Focus on Lunar Militarisation
Despite the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which prohibits the militarisation of the Moon and any national claims of ownership, the intense international competition in recent years has heightened the possibility of militarising the Moon and increasing conflicts over its control. In 2020, the head of the US Space Force referred to the Moon as a “key terrain.” The US Air Force Research Laboratory is funding a new experimental satellite called Oracle, which is set to launch in 2026 to monitor the space between the Earth and the Moon. Given the US military’s extensive experience monitoring spacecraft orbiting Earth, Washington appears to be leveraging this expertise to expand its influence on the Moon, potentially providing enhanced intelligence for space-related government activities.
In recent years, the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has also increased its focus on the Moon, launching three major projects. The first is the “Novel Orbital and Moon Manufacturing, Materials and Mass-efficient Design” (NOM4D) program, which aims to develop precise systems for the US Department of Defense.
The second is “LunA-10”, targeting the development of future lunar infrastructure. The third project, “Lunar Operational Guidance for Infrastructure Consortium” (LOGIC), aims to establish international technical operating standards for the Moon.
The growing emphasis on lunar technology from a US Department of Defense-affiliated agency has sparked concerns about furthering the militarisation of the lunar surface. The new space race, centred on the Moon, could potentially escalate existing Earth-bound conflicts and tensions into space.
The interest in lunar militarisation is closely linked to the rise of military space activities in general. The US is preparing to deploy the “Remote Terminal Modular System” (RTM), a new ground-based jamming system designed to disrupt hostile satellites during wars and conflicts. Conversely, some American officials warned during the annual Aspen Security Forum that Russia and China will likely deploy space weapons soon.
Current Features of Lunar Militarisation
The lunar space has become a potential strategic asset for military purposes, primarily due to the Moon’s unique environment and its proximity to Earth, making it an attractive arena for military applications.
There are diverse ways to utilise the Moon as a strategic military asset. One of the most notable is establishing a permanent presence on the Moon, through constructing advanced bases.
Such bases would offer a stable platform for space and Earth surveillance, thereby improving early warning systems and intelligence gathering. Additionally, having a permanent presence on the Moon could help deploy various military assets, protecting critical space infrastructure and deterring adversaries.
Furthermore, military forces stationed on the Moon would gain a significant advantage in terms of flexibility and response time, as lunar-based military assets could be quickly deployed to different locations in Earth’s orbit, allowing for rapid response during conflicts.
On the other hand, there are growing concerns about nuclear threats in orbital space, particularly after Russia’s anti-satellite test in November 2021. In this context, there is increasing anxiety that competing international powers might attempt to gain control over the currently limited points of interest on the lunar surface, restricting access to these areas.
These concerns are further exacerbated by the fact that international powers, especially China and the US, are now working in shared locations on the Moon, which could result in operational risks and potential conflicts over resources and competition zones.
Moreover, the possibility of increased tensions due to the growing risk of collisions in light of the intensified lunar activity cannot be ruled out.
Some estimates suggest that the US has current plans to deploy weapons in space, including some aimed at the far side of the Moon, alongside military satellites intended for lunar orbit to conduct espionage. These goals seem to be longstanding, dating back to US aspirations from the mid-20th century.
However, at the time, these ambitions were hindered by the high costs and insufficient technological capabilities. Yet, the features of the new Cold War in the international system, coupled with significant technological advancements, have led Washington to reconsider its previous ambitions regarding lunar militarisation.
This is likely one of the reasons behind the creation of the US Space Force in 2019, a branch of the US Armed Forces. Similarly, some Western reports have warned of ongoing Chinese efforts to deploy military equipment on the Moon during their exploratory missions, aimed at protecting their long-term presence near the lunar south pole.
The Future of the Lunar Cold War
There is currently intense competition to establish a sustainable presence at the Moon’s south pole. Given the vast water and mineral resources in this area, both the US and China are working towards setting up lunar bases there. Achieving this will be a decisive point for whichever side manages to establish a presence first.
One of the key conflicts surrounding the Moon involves competing international powers trying to gain early access to certain strategic locations, laying claim to them, and preventing other parties from landing in these areas.
In the coming years, we are likely to witness an escalation in international competition over the lunar domain, especially given the current political willingness of major powers to spend large sums on lunar missions. For instance, the total expenditures of the Artemis programme are estimated to reach approximately $93 billion by 2025, and it is expected that commercial companies will play an increasingly significant role in this lunar competition.
Legal considerations pose a major challenge linked to lunar militarisation, as there is still a lack of binding regulations that limit the potential arms race on the Moon and in outer space in general.
While the 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits nations from placing weapons of mass destruction on the Moon or in space, it does not explicitly ban the deployment of conventional weapons or the establishment of military bases.
With the likelihood that either the Chinese or the Americans will be the first to return humans to the lunar surface in the next few years, this will add a new dimension to the competition between the two nations, further intensifying their already tense relations.
The side that manages to lead in this field is expected to dominate the setting of standards and rules governing the utilisation of the Moon’s resources and areas of influence. ●
By: Adnan Mousa Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University
